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The
situation of the world today At the recent SADC summit in Windhoek, Namibia, the leaders describe the main problems in Southern Africa as:
We will here look at some of these main
problems.
Economic development is needed Southern Africa covers 13 countries: South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Swaziland, Lesotho, Mozambique, Malawi, Tanzania, Congo. 12 of these are members of the SADC (Congo is not). They have a total population of 200 million. Of these over 40 million live in absolute poverty. SADC has existed for 20 years. In August 2000 the leaders have meet for the 20th summit in Windhoek to discuss the main problems of the region and what to do. One main problem is how to create economic development in the region. At present the average growth rate in SADC countries is 3,5 %. A growth rate of 6,7 % is needed in order to combat poverty, create jobs and create economic development. And to achieve this growth rate radical actions much be taken. In many different areas at the same time. Here are some of the attempts, ideas and obstacles in reaching this growth rate: Improve Africa’s image in the world Presidents like Mbeki and Chissano complain that the world generally have a hopeless and giving-up attitude towards Africa. News reaching the rest of the world are those of corruption, disaster, bad leadership, conflicts, tribalism ... etc. This image is a problem, because foreign investors (and tourists) stay away - and Africa is (again) increasingly left to development aid - which generally do not create development at all. They speak in favor of developing modern telecommunication to spread also the good and encouraging things happening. Making all SADC countries one free trade area SADC was formed in order to improve the economy of the Southern Africa. However over the past 20 years very little has been done in order to facilitate the possibilities to travel and trade across the borders within the region. Colonial trading structures have prevailed - meaning trade from each individual country to Europe, America and Asia - mostly out of Africa. Each country being busy to protect their own interests. Most SADC countries have over the past years reformed their economies - in order to meet demands by international banks and donors. They have trimmed down the public sector and liberalized the private sector. But much more is needed in order to invite the needed foreign investment to the area. Without foreign investments the region cannot achieve a growth rate of 6,7 %. In past years the foreign investments have declined. Mbeki and Chissano says that Africa is capable of dealing with corrupt leaders, but cannot create the needed economic development without assistance from the developed part of the world. At present there are reforms going on in order to modernize all SADC institutions and create a free trade area within the boundaries of the SADC countries. That has been part of the recent summit. The SADC countries have realized that if they shall be able to compete on the global market they need to make it easier to trade between their own countries - away with tariffs and promote transport and communication possibilities. This is no doubt an important step - but as Chissano says - "the pace is too slow, we must speed up". But it is now for the first time
possible to travel from Maputo in the east to Walvis Bay in the west. Solving the conflicts There is a clear link between the will to invest and the political stability in a country. Foreign investments simply stay away or pull out if there are conflicts. Generally the political situation in Southern Africa has been stable. But there are two major conflicts disturbing the whole region: in Angola and in Congo. Both have cost huge amounts of money and human lives and they have set back development in both these countries and neighboring countries as well several decades. They have led to many people being displaced - often in places where there are little or no opportunities to provide for them. On the other hand these two countries are probably the riches countries on the continent when it comes to natural wealth. The SADC leaders are quite concerned
about finding a solution to the two conflicts - but it is not easy, as we
will see later on, when we take a closer look at the conflict in Congo.
From there we will take the discussion of how one actually do solve
conflicts like that. A Marshall Plan for Africa Also World Economic Forum have met in South Africa recently - and they as well point to the very same main problems of Southern Africa. What they suggest is a Marshall Plan for Africa in the new millennium. Equal to the plan implemented in Europe after the Second World war. But where Europe needed money to rebuild infrastructure and industrial capacity - Africa needs infrastructures that has never existed.
Opening up world markets to African export products As for the economic development a major obstacle is the trading inequalities on the world market. EU as Africa's largest trading partner has high tariffs on African commodities entering the European market. And they have large subsidiaries to European products for the export market - especially in agriculture, which is a main production in Africa. So we find cheap, EU-funded agricultural products entering the African market and knocking out locally produced agricultural products. US has taken away tariff of some African export products - a tiny beginning. But it is unlikely that economic growth will boom in Africa without changes in the trade, allowing Africa to change from being a producer of cheap raw materials and being a customer of finished products from the rich part of the world - to become a producer and exporter of products itself.
Debt relief Typically, countries in Southern Africa uses 20-30 % of their export earnings to pay off debts. If this can be reduced or even canceled the money could be used to expand a very needed infrastructure, which will promote economic development. In this area things are happening - some countries have had small parts of their debt canceled - others have applications running with the financial institutions such as the World Bank and IMF.
Competitiveness, improvements and optimism Taking a look at the development and status of the countries in Southern Africa we can look at the recent report on Competitiveness produced by the World Economic Forum. Here we find an examination of 23 countries in Africa - among them the countries in Southern Africa. They divide the countries into three categories - high ranking, middle ranking and low ranking. The high ranking countries in Southern Africa are: Namibia, South Africa, Mauritius and Botswana. Botswana is one of the success stories of Africa with an annual growth rate of 8 %. Middle ranking countries are: Zambia and Tanzania. Low ranking are: Angola, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Swaziland and Lesotho.
There is a direct link between the competitiveness of a country and the Human Development Index, issued annually by the United Nation. Here some 260 different factors - like life expectancy, literacy, school enrollment, per capita income etc. - count each their share to indicate the general human welfare of people in a country. In the 1999 HDI only one African country ranks among the 100 first countries in the world - Mauritius (NR. 59). The 20 poorest countries in the world are all African nations (apart from Haiti). Among them are Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi, Angola and Mozambique. Here the countries in Southern Africa are listed with the number they have in the HDI: 59 Mauritius The Competitiveness report also analyses improvement and optimism in the countries. And here the picture is different. We find here among the top ranking countries Mozambique and Zambia - where as Zimbabwe and South Africa are at the bottom. Some explanations for this: Mozambique has the top score of optimism. This is mainly due to the fact that there has been peace since 1992 and people and business have seen much progress and improvements in many areas in the past 8 years. In South Africa the lack of optimism can be explained by the growing crime rates and the instability associated with the transition to democratic rule. In Zimbabwe there is a general pessimism because there has been little or no improvement to be proud of and much blame is put on a government who keeps on hesitating and generally has reservations towards privatization. When Botswana and Namibia is ranking somewhere in the middle concerning optimism it is more due to a relative satisfaction with the present circumstances and therefore not any particular optimism about that the future will radically make things better. Good leadership The report relate the competitiveness, improvements and optimism of the countries closely to the political and economical leadership. Governments play an important role in pushing reforms and maintaining stability. Looking at Southern Africa, Zimbabwe is pinpointed as a country with a poor economic leadership - Botswana with a good leadership. To any business - foreign and domestic - it is not enough to have good infrastructure as Zimbabwe has - many other factors are needed in order to have an effective production and here corruption plays an important role. Another factor that play a role is openness to trade. Some African leaders are from the "colonial" period and hang on to an outdated attitude of wanting to be "Independent". With an ambition to manage on their own. To decide about all economic matters themselves. This is the case of Zimbabwe - and has lead to reservations and restrictions towards foreign investments - and a very slow pace to introduce needed reforms - e.g. the land reform. The fact is that only countries with "openness" to trade and foreign investments will be able to see their countries grow and prosper. Conclusion There is a general improvement in all areas apart from health in the region as such. But this general picture covers wide differences - ranging from actual set backs to great improvement. But the future is one of more cooperation within the region and between the region and the rest of the world. Development requires a good leadership. Southern Africa will have to take their turns with the backward, corrupt and narrow-minded leaders in the region. Development requires three main factors: land, money and people. Southern Africa has the land. There is no doubts as to the potentials of the region - it is rich in minerals and agricultural possibilities, there is the necessary energy supply. The land and the natural resources are there. But there is a lack of money and people. The money is needed to be supplied from the outside - by donors, through partnerships, through foreign investments, through an expanding tourism, ... many sources at the same time are needed. In spite of a growing population there is a generally low density of people in the whole region - making development expensive when estimated per capita. Human Resource Management - the right people in the right jobs - and education are keys to development The conflict in Congo Congo is one of the largest countries in Africa. It is also one of the richest mining countries in Africa. Diamonds, zinc, uranium, copper, cobalt, gold, silver tungsten, tin, cadmium.... The country has huge potentials in
agro-forestry (77 % are forests and woodland) and tourism, ... there is
plenty of land and water - energy. There are 200 African ethnic groups of which the majority are Bantu; the four largest tribes - Mongo, Luba, Kongo (all Bantu), and the Mangbetu-Azande (Hamitic) make up about 45% of the population. The border is over 10.000 km. Here 2.500 km with Angola, 2.400 km with the Republic of Congo, 1.900 km to Zambia and 1.500 km with the Central African Republic. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has a large refugee population. From Rwanda, Angola, Uganda, Sudan and Burundi. To put the present conflict in Congo in a context, let us take a brief look at Congo's history. The history of Congo is one of much violence. From the arrival of the first Portuguese ships along the coast of Africa in 1490 ties and the following 200 years Congo and Angola were systematically hunted down for slaves - estimates say 13 million people alone from these two empires were sailed across the Atlantic Ocean - this must have constituted a large percentage of the population when looking at the total population of the countries today - Angola with 12,6 million people and Congo with 50 million people. After the Berlin Conference in 1884 Congo was given as a personal estate to the King of Belgium. There were no development taking place at all - private businesses used the people as slaves in mines and plantations - and they performed the most brutal and savage form of colonialism seen on the entire continent. Congo became independent in 1960. Patrice Lumumba won the elections and became the first prime minister. However, in a matter of days the military mutinied and the province of Katanga (with many minerals) seceded. Lumumba tried to get help from United Nations, then Soviet Union but was overthrown by an alliance between the military and regional leaders led by Joseph Mobuto, who took power and has been there until 1997. Repeated time people rebelled against Mobuto, but he was all along helped by American troops and money as well as the CIA. In 1972 Mobuto renames everything in the country - and the name he gives himself tells everything: Mobuto Sese Seko Koko Ngbendu wa za Banga - meaning: "the all-powerfull warrior who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, will go from conquest to conquest leaving fire in his wake". Congo became Zaire. Later, in 1975, he goes a stage further and expels the Asian community and appropriates 500 million $ of foreign businesses in Zaire. Mobuto let the foreigners take what they wanted in Zaire as long as they paid him well. He is said to have been the richest man in the world. Mobuto was a sole dictator - the state money were his private money. He wanted total control and did not listen to any other political opinions. When the opposition forced him to appoint a minister, he sacked him the next day - when there were riots from people tired of the corruption or hired soldiers that were not paid - he oppressed it all with violence. Many mercenaries have had a job in Zaire. From 1977 and onwards the riots occurred more and more - and with more and more violence. In 1997 Mobuto was finally overthrown and Laurent Kabila became the new president - in what changed name to Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Kabila is from the generation of socialist rebels, who have been "at war" since the 60-ties. It is said that Che Guevara visited him, but quickly left again in disgust, saying they were more interested in night clubs than in power. But Kabila does not have neither the support nor the capacity to gather the country as a new democratic republic and outline prosperous plans for the future. Not that it is an easy job though. Congo has more than 200 ethnic groups and has never been satisfactory gathered as a country. From where should the people have any confidence in their leaders. The leaders have been one dictator after the other. There is much unsolved tension and emotions. And there are many economic and political interests. There are several so-called rebel groups - some are armed - like Bemba and his army others are peaceful. Most of them are tribally founded - like the Banyamulenge tribe. Uganda and Rwanda supports the rebels and have send troops into DRC to fight. Zimbabwe, Angola and Namibia supports Kabila and have also send troops into DRC to fight. The interests of these foreign countries are first of all economic interests - in securing a political allied at power in Congo that is strong enough to keep the country under control and has influence enough to perform the policy decided. The war escalated until a peace treaty was signed last year. However the peace treaty has been broken. It seams Kabila has lost any ambitions of getting power - on the contrary he acts with clear interest in continuing the war. He puts up impossible demands to the UN peace keeping troops that have been allocated for Congo. He stays away from SADC meeting of heads of state where the conflict in Congo is the agenda, he lets Mugabe wait without giving any messages of whether he will arrive to a planned meeting or not. He builds up contradictions between his own party and the opposition in stead of finding solutions and building cooperation. He refuses to accept Ket Masire as a facilitator in the peace treaty... etc. etc. He crosses all borders of decent and acceptable behavior - seemingly confident of his support from Zimbabwe and Namibia. Without this support his army is worth nothing.
Naturally running a war is easier than building the peace. In war there is little control with the riches and he can plunder and steel for himself - which is what I am sure is taking place.
The conflict in Congo is unsolved. How and what the solution will be is not easy to say. Some predict Congo to be the start of Africa’s Cold War. Others are getting increasingly irritated on the fact that so many innocent people constantly are killed and sacrificed on the alter of political and personal glory of incompetent leaders. But I am sure Kabila is not the answer. And I am also sure that to solve the conflict one has to study the history of Congo to come up with the right solution. Somehow all the wise diplomats, economists and politicians in the rest of the world must take charge in such cases. It is not the first time the world stand with such a conflict. It is certainly not the last time either. Conflict solving is rather becoming a new science you can study and write books about - but what about finding the actual and practical solutions?? HIV/AIDS This is a main problem in Southern
Africa - but I believe you have learnt about this when being introduced to
the TCE program. So I will not write about it here. And I will not include
it in the discussion - it has its own discussion and is worth its own
evening program. Questions to discuss: 1. How can a conflict like the one in Congo be solved? Or in Angola? Or.... What procedure should be taken? By whom? Should they just be left to themselves? Or should the rest of the world interfere? With what authority? How? Discuss how to make a down to earth practical approach to this conflict and how it is possible to see the end of it. 2. The positive signs of development. Often we hear about the failures. But there are many positive signs of development as well. Mention them - small or large as they might be. It is a good training to be able to see them. Together you will be able to point at them. 3. Why is Zimbabwe in such a poor state? What went wrong along the way since independence? Zimbabwe has had all the possibilities to prosper as a country with a rich climate, natural resources, a high level of education, developed infrastructure, a differentiated industrial production .... So what went wrong? Is it a leadership not living up to its task? Too slow in reforming? Unfriendly to investments? Afraid of opposition? What now and in the future? 4. How does the work of Humana People to People fit into the picture of creating development in Southern Africa? An example of cooperation across borders - modern technology and communication integrated - human resource management counting all people in with education and development plans for all - making profit in order to improve living conditions for everybody - taking a firm grip of the main problems of the people - creating visions and liberating the energy of the many in the practical process to pursue them.... etc. An example that is extremely needed to copy in all corners of the region - so how can we, at the same time as we develop our projects also spread the good example to many more in the region
APPENDIX 1 THE FOOD SITUATION Source: SADC Food Security Quarterly Bulletin Latest SADC cereal production estimates indicate a 13% increase over last season... Latest estimates put the 1999/2000 SADC cereal harvest at 24.21 million tonnes against 21.37 million tonnes produced last season. This is despite the devastation caused by flooding in southern and central Mozambique and parts of South Africa, Swaziland, Botswana and Zimbabwe. The increase is mainly due to increased plantings and the prevalence of above average seasonal rainfall. SADC maize harvest is up 14%... Regional maize production is estimated to have increased by 14% to 19.48 million tonnes from the 1998/99 harvest of 17.15 million tonnes on account of significantly increased output in South Africa (28%) one of the main maize producing countries, Zambia (53%), and Zimbabwe (41%). Significant increases have also been realised in Botswana and Namibia. The 1999/2000 harvest in most countries is well above the 5-year average, except for Lesotho, Swaziland and Tanzania. SADC faces a reduced overall cereal deficit of 679,000 tonnes compared to 2.19 million tonnes last year... Latest assessments project a regional deficit of 679,000 tonnes for the 2000/01 marketing year for all cereals combined; total cereal availability of 27.04 million tonnes is insufficient to cover total requirements estimated at 27.72 million tonnes. All countries (except South Africa, Malawi and Zambia) are projecting overall cereal deficit positions. Regional maize surplus of 1.33 million tonnes is assessed for the 2000/01 marketing year... Current demand/ supply assessments indicate an overall regional maize surplus of 1.33 million tonnes mostly due to the marked increase in output in South Africa. Exportable maize surpluses are assessed for South Africa (2.27 million tonnes) and Malawi (725,000 tonnes). Deficits/import requirements in wheat, and rice are assessed... Regional deficits (mainly structural) assessed in wheat and rice will need to be covered through imports. Some 1.21 million tonnes of wheat imports, and 540,000 tonnes rice will be necessary to cover the projected deficit. Although a sorghum/millet deficit is also projected, it will likely be covered through cross substitution with maize. |